Realising sustainable development in the Egyptian society is the core of the state policy that adopted a development strategy based on free market and interaction between forces of supply and demand.
In spite of the international events witnessed during 2003, reflecting negatively on global economy and resulting in recession and economic slowdown in addition to the difficult circumstances in the Middle East, the Egyptian economy managed to pull through, making good strides in improving performance rates.
Resources available for the Egyptian economy in 2003/04 are expected to reach LE 534 billion against LE 494 billion in 2002/03 at a growth rate of 3.2 percent.
* Main Indicators for Economy:
Gross Domestic Production
Production in 2002/03 amounted to about LE 634.6 billion. Volume of production in 2003/04 is expected to reach LE 677.2 billion at a growth rate of 2.9 percent. The private sector is expected to contribute LE 26.4 billion at a production rate of 66.6 percent.
Gross Domestic Product
While gross domestic product amounted to around LE 374.5 billion in 2003/04, it is expected to reach around LE 400 billion in 2003/04 at current prices at cost of production factors, realising a growth rate of around 0.3 percent, showing an increase of LE 25.5 billion. Contribution by the private sector is expected to reach 66.4 percent, showing an increase of LE 15.3 billion.
Investment Utilizations
Investments in 2002/03 amounted to LE 30.5 billion as governmental sector investments, in addition to around LE 30 billion as private and public business sector investments, targeted to reach LE 70 billion in 2003/04, with about LE 28.9 billion as government sector investments and public and private business sector investments amounted to LE 41.1 billion. Dealing with the Outside World
Trade balance deficit amounted to around US Dollar 6.8 billion in 2002/03, targeted to reach around US Dollar 6.3 billion in 2003/04.
Receipts of commodity exports in 2002/03 amounted to around US Dollar 7.3 billion against US Dollar 8.1 billion targeted in 2003/04.
Receipts of commodity imports reached US Dollar 14.1 billion in 2002/03 against US Dollar 14.4 billion expected in 2003/04.
Labour Force, Employment and Unemployment
- Labour force amounted to 20.1 million in 2002/03 against 20.7 million expected in 2003/04.
Employment
Number of employees increased from 18.179 million workers in 2002/03, to around 18.729 million workers in 2003/04 at an increase of 550,000 workers and at an average annual growth rate of about 3 percent.
Facing Unemployment
The government exerts substantial efforts to curb unemployment by increasing the ability of the Egyptian economy especially the private business sector and small enterprises to absorb the increase in labour force where the volume of unemployment is targeted to decrease from 1997,000 in 2002/03 to about 1971,000 in 2003/04, thus bringing down unemployment rate from 9.9 percent in 2002/03 to around 9.5 percent in 2003/04.
Unemployment*
|
Year
|
Workforce
|
Employed
|
Unemployed
|
|
Number
|
%
|
|
2002/03
|
20176
|
18179
|
1997
|
9.9
|
|
2003/04
|
20700
|
18729
|
1971
|
9.5
|
End –Use Consumption
The state takes into consideration both the social and economic dimensions in estimating volume of the end-use consumption in order to sustain the progress of the production process in such a pace to cope with population growth rates and the steady rise in consumption levels.
End-Use Consumption Estimates of 2003/04 against 2002/03**
|
Description
|
2002/03
|
2003/04
|
Actual growth rate
|
|
Value of average structure
|
Value of average structure
|
|
Household consumption
|
302.5
|
85.9
|
322
|
86.1
|
3.1
|
|
Government consumption
|
49.5
|
14.1
|
52
|
13.9
|
2
|
|
Total end-use consumption
|
352.0
|
100
|
374
|
100
|
2.9
|
Overall State Budget
The draft budget for fiscal year 2003/04 is estimated at about LE 159.6 billion compared to LE 143 billion for the preceding year, showing an 16.6-percent increase.
Public Revenues
Total public revenues are estimated at LE 116.5 billion, including LE 77.6 billion in state revenues, taxes, customs, sales taxes and various duties, LE 27.7 billion in current revenues (surplus in petroleum, Suez Canal sectors, corporate and bank profits, etc.,), LE 5.4 billion in revenues available for investment, and LE 5.8 billion in revenues available for capital transfers, including privatization proceeds.
The Social Dimension Taken into Consideration
A cornerstone in the government's policy is to take into consideration the social dimension and the interests of low-income brackets. Thus, the 2003/04 budget allocated around 40 percent of total appropriations to the social dimension amounting to LE 63.8 billion, including LE 23.8 billion for education, LE 8.4 billion for health, LE 8 billion in subsidy, LE 18.2 billion for supporting pensions and insurance schemes, LE 4.3 billion for cultural services, social and religious care, and LE 1.1 billion for the em-ployment of young graduates.
Current Utilizations
Total current utilizations amount to LE 122.3 billion, including LE 38.7 billion as wages, while the total capital utilizations amount to LE 37.3 billion, with around LE 20.4 billion for investments and LE 16.9 billion for capital transfers.
Total State Budget for the Fiscal Year 2003/04*
|
Description
|
Draft budget 2003/04
|
Budget
2002/03
|
Variance
|
|
Increase
|
Reduction
|
I: Current Budget
(A) Current utilizations
Chapter 1 - Wages
Chapter 2 – Current costs and transfers
Total Current Utilizations
(B) Current revenues
Chapter 1 – Sovereign revenues
Chapter 2 – Current revenues and transfers
Total Current Revenues
Current difference (surplus/deficit)
II: Capital Budget
(A) Investments
Chapter 3 – Investment utilizations
Revenues Available for Financing Investments
Chapter 3 – Miscellaneous capital transfers
Chapter 4 – Loans and credit facilities
Total Financing
Deficit in Financing Investments
(B) Capital Transfers
Chapter 4- capital transfers
Capital Revenues for Financing
Transfers
Chapter 3-miscellaneous capital revenues
Chapter 4- loans and credit facilities
Total Financing
Difference in financing transfers
|
38672.1
83640.4
122312.5
77576.3
27725.5
105301.8
-17010.7
20402.4
2438.1
1328.6
3766.7
-16635.7
16887.4
5758.9
-
5758.9
-11128.5
|
34853.8
73062.4
107916.2
72155.3
25449.3
97604.6
-10311.6
20424.6
3833.3
1484.0
5317.3
-15107.3
14672.7
7538.2
-
7538.2
-7134.5
|
3818.3
10578.0
14396.3
5421.0
2276.2
7697.1
6699.2
-
-
-
-
1528.4
2214.7
-
-
-
3994.0
|
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.2
1395.2
155.4
1550.6
-
-
1779.3
-
1779.3
-
|
Major Economic Indicators*
|
Description
|
2002/03
|
2003/04
|
|
Savings rate (as a percent of gross domestic product)
|
12.66
|
13.0
|
|
Investment rate (as a percent of gross domestic product)
|
15.88
|
16.28
|
|
Local resources gap (as a percent of the gross domestic product)
|
3.2
|
3.3
|