Egyptian Economy 8 in years
Wednesday، 06 April 2016 11:23 AM
The performance of global currencies against the dollar
The performance of the most important global currencies declined against the dollar, including the pound, due to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The change has occurd since the beginning of the crisis February 25 until the end of August 2022. Among the countries whose currencies have witnessed a decline are: Qatar, Kuwait, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Turkey, and in the same context has The currencies of Indonesia, India, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Peru, Chile, Colombia, South Africa, Brazil and Canada also declined, while the performance of the currencies of Russia and Mexico improved, while the currencies of the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan stabilized.
Egypt's foreign debt
Egypt’s external debt is among the best compared to the most prominent emerging economies in the world, and the countries were chosen according to the Morgan Stanley classification of emerging markets, where the ratio of external debt to GDP (according to the latest data available in 2022) reached 34.6% in Egypt, while Brazil recorded 18.7%, Chile 84%, Colombia 50.7%, Peru 45%, Thailand 38.7%, Hungary 61%, South Africa 38.1%, Turkey 56.8%, India 19.9%, Indonesia 31.8%, Malaysia 67.7%, and the Philippines 27.5%. , Egypt's external debt as a percentage of GDP is still in the safe range according to the classification of the International Monetary Fund.
The improvement of the international view of the Egyptian economy
The international vision of the Egyptian economy has improved during 8 years
In July 2013, "Fitch" lowered Egypt's credit rating to B- with a future negative outlook, as the downgrade reflects the increasing negative risks to the economy, the high rate of deficit and the severe shortage of foreign exchange sources, and the instability will make it difficult to implement economic reforms, while In April 2022, Fitch affirmed Egypt's credit rating at B+ with a stable outlook, explaining that Egypt's rating is supported by its recent record of financial and economic reforms, and its large economy achieving strong growth, in addition to the support of regional and international partners.
In May 2013, Standard & Poor's lowered Egypt's credit rating at CCC + with a stable outlook, due to the deteriorating probability of the Egyptian authorities achieving their financial goals or the ability to mitigate external pressures and obligations, while Standard & Poor's affirmed in April 2022 the rating. Egypt's credit rating is at B level with a stable future outlook, noting that its outlook reflects the Egyptian state's response to crises along with the support of international partners, which will prevent any material deterioration resulting from high prices.
In March 2013, Moody's downgraded Egypt's credit rating to Caa1 with a future negative outlook. It attributed this view to the fact that the ongoing state of instability has significantly weakened the Egyptian economy, in addition to the deterioration of Egypt's position as to its external obligations.
In May 2022, Moody's affirmed Egypt's credit rating at B2 with a future negative outlook, noting that the Egyptian credit file is still supported by economic and financial reforms, strong growth and a large domestic financing base. The realization of primary budget surpluses before the Corona pandemic has also been restored and is likely to continue.
In 2013, the International Monetary Fund indicated that Egypt's economic prospects are still fraught with challenges due to the state of instability and delay in implementing reforms, and that there is an urgent need to implement a comprehensive economic program, while in 2022 it praised Egypt for taking several economic measures to confront the successive crises.
The IMF considered these measures as welcome steps effecting an expansion in social protection directed to its beneficiaries and the application of the flexibility of the exchange rate movement.
During 2013, the World Bank considered that foreign direct investment flows to Egypt were few compared to its prediction in 2022 that the proportion of foreign investments in the Egyptian GDP would increase from 2021/2222 until 2023/2024.
In 2013, the African Development Bank indicated expectations of a decline in the economic growth of Egypt in light of the state of instability, while it confirmed during 2022 that Egypt’s economic prospects are positive and its economy is expected to recover, owing to Egypt’s steadfastness in the face of the Corona crisis, and also expected the fiscal deficit to decline. It also expected that Egypt will continue to achieve a primary surplus.
In 2014, Fitch confirmed that the Egyptian economy is going through a difficult period with the persistence of concerns surrounding the devaluation of the currency and the undermining of investment patterns, while in 2022, it indicated an improvement in tourism revenues and foreign direct investment, in addition to regional and international support for Egypt allowing it to cover its external obligations.
In 2011, Egypt exited the "GBMorgan Index" for not meeting the institution's requirements, while in 2021 Egypt joined the "GBMorgan Index" of government bonds by 1.85%, and the environment and governance by 1.18%.
In 2013, the Oxford Business Group saw that Egypt is facing financial difficulties and fears that restrict financial and economic activity, in return for its assertion in 2022 that the Egyptian economy has proven its ability to withstand the Corona crisis, supported by ambitious economic reforms throughout the years preceding the crisis.